Trick of the Trade

We often need to know when a colleague or supplier will deliver a component, test result, or needed bit of information, but colleagues and suppliers are often reticent to offer concrete promise dates (for a variety of reasons). When someone will not or cannot offer an estimated delivery time, try this trick: “Can I have it after lunch today?” (The usual response is “No, that’s nowhere near enough time!”) “Okay, could I have it by this date next year?” (The usual response is “Of course, that’s plenty of time.”) You have now established that they do have some idea of how long the task will take, and it’s just a matter of tightening those boundaries.
Continue by asking, “So, between this afternoon and next year, what’s your best guess?” This usually results in a reasonable but somewhat optimistic estimation (depending on the individual and on the local culture). Next ask “If everything went perfectly, no competing priorities, no mistakes, and no snags of any kind, when could it be finished?”, the response is the best-case timing. Then ask, “What if everything went wrong, needed resources weren’t available when expected, problems popped up, other projects got hot and took priority?” This reveals the worst-case timing. Now you are in a position to agree on a realistic timing window and assess the risk of the task being completed late (and take any needed actions to help move things along).
